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Brewers, Pirates Going UNDER in the Steel City

Jordan Luplow #47 of the Pittsburgh Pirates, Gregory Polanco #25 of the Pittsburgh Pirates and Starling Marte #6 of the Pittsburgh Pirates celebrate after defeating the Washington Nationals 2-0 at PNC Park on July 11, 2018 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

With the all-star break almost here, the Milwaukee Brewers and Pittsburgh Pirates will get very used to each other, as the clubs play five straight before heading into the break. The NL Central squads open things tonight at PNC Park. Sportsbooks opened the Pirates as -129 home favorites with a total of 8.5.

  • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Brewers’ last nine games on the road against the Pirates.
  • The Brewers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as road underdogs.
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Pirates’ last five games (avg combined score: 5.4).

Miley set to make return from disabled list for Brew Crew

Wade Miley and Jameson Taillon will get the nod in this one for the Brewers and Pirates, respectively. Miley (1-0, 1.42 ERA) is making his return from a strained right oblique to make his third start of the season for Milwaukee. The 31-year-old has spent two lengthy stints on the DL, as he missed the first month of the season with a groin injury before hitting the 60-day disabled list after leaving his second outing in the first inning. Miley is 2-2 with a 3.79 ERA in seven career starts against the Bucs.

Taillon (5-7, 4.05) has posted a 3.51 ERA across his last eight outings with five quality starts in that span. The hurler allowed three runs over 6.2 innings in a setback to the Philadelphia Phillies in his previous start last Saturday. Taillon, who is 2-4 with a 4.17 ERA on the road in 2018, is 1-4 with a 3.70 ERA in eight starts against the Brewers, including a loss and a no-decision this year.

Brewers, Pirates going UNDER in Pennsylvania

When the Brewers travel to Pittsburgh, low-scoring affairs tend to follow. The UNDER is 8-1 in the Brewers’ past nine games at PNC Park. Three of the past four meetings between Milwaukee and Pittsburgh have also gone UNDER the total, with an average combined score of 5.8 runs. Pittsburgh has gone below the closing total in each of its past five, with an average combined score of 5.4 runs. Based on those trends, the UNDER will likely receive plenty of action at sportsbooks tonight.

Is the Brewers runline worth a look?

When the Brewers find themselves as road underdogs, their runline has been a solid play. In Milwaukee’s past 13 as a road dog, the team is 10-3 on the runline. To wager on the Brewers on the runline tonight will cost you, however, as the juice was sitting at -190 on Milwaukee +1.5 at the time of writing.