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Capitals have been risky play in Game 7’s

After six games of momentum-changing, back-and-forth hockey, it all comes down to one game for the Washington Capitals and the Tampa Bay Lightning in Game 7 tonight. The Eastern Conference title is up for grabs with one squad punching its ticket to the Stanley Cup final to face the upstart Vegas Golden Knights. Historically, Game 7s haven’t been kind to the Capitals as they’re 4-11 SU all-time in the final game of the series and 3-7 SU since Alexander Ovechkin joined the squad in 2005. Washington opened as a +130 dog to buck that trend and make its first Stanley Cup final since 1998.

  • Washington is 16-8 SU in the last 24 games vs Tampa Bay.
  • Tampa Bay is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games.
  • Evgeni Kuznetsov leads the NHL playoffs in scoring with 23 points.

This is the third time in the past four years that the Lightning will play in a Game 7 of the Eastern Conference final but this time, they get to play it at Amalie Arena. The Lightning are 6-3 SU in their nine home playoff games this postseason but have been outscored 10-7 vs the Capitals in this series in their barn after dropping the opening two games.

It also doesn’t bode well that they couldn’t muster any momentum in Game 6 in Washington when they got shut out 3-0. The Lightning were outhit by the Caps 39-19 and outshot 34-24 in Game 6 as Washington laid the body on Tampa, dominating the game from puckdrop. Bettors may want to stick to the Bolts moneyline if they plan to wager on Tampa Bay as the team is 0-5 against the puckline in its last five games when hosting the Caps and 4-11 ATS in the last 15 games in this matchup.

As for the Capitals, they’ve been road warriors these entire playoffs at 8-2 SU, outscoring their opponents 30-17 in those contests. Evgeni Kuznetsov has been scoring clutch goals for Washington and now has 11 goals in the playoffs, with five of those coming on the road.

But scoring may be hard to come by if goaltenders Braden Holtby and Andrei Vasilevskiy continue to stand tall and shut the door on these groups of talented forwards. Holtby is coming off his first shutout of the playoffs and sports a 2.33 goals-against average and a .903 save percentage. He has the slight edge statistically vs Vasilevskiy as the Russian owns a 3.00 goals-against average in this series but after dropping the first two games, Vassy has stood tall with a .939 save percentage from Game 3 through Game 6.

With the stakes so high and the fact that only eight goals total have been scored in the last two games in this series, the UNDER may need to be heavily considered in this heavyweight matchup with the total opening at 5.5.

Opening Odds & Computer Pick

If you're going with the Tampa Bay Lightning in this one, they were listed as moneyline favorites of -167 on most NHL hockey betting menus (such as Bovada) early today for Wednesday's contest. The OVER/UNDER total was at 5.5 earlier at Bet365.

OddsShark score prediction models pick a 3.7-1.7 result in favor of the Capitals today. View the computer score prediction and who will win the pick on the moneyline for all upcoming NHL matchups here.

Washington Capitals vs Tampa Bay Lightning Matchup

Team Betting Records & Power Rankings

The Tampa Bay Lightning currently sport a record of 65-28-5. The Washington Capitals are 60-31-9. Betting totals have seen the Lightning post a 55-37-6 OVER/UNDER record this season, while the Capitals have gone 53-42-5 against the number. Stay Informed: follow us on Twitter for odds specials, betting line moves and Tampa Bay vs Washington injuries news.

According to new NHL Power Rankings here at OddsShark, it's the No. 10-ranked Lightning and the No. 7-rated Capitals in this matchup.

Statistical Matchup

Offensively, the game matches up the Tampa Bay Lightning's No. 1-ranked offense (3.53 goals per game) against a Washington Capitals defense that ranks No. 12 at 2.86 goals per game allowed. The Lightning power play has clicked at a 24.85% rate while the Capitals have a 79.33% rate on the penalty kill.

Recent Outings Betting Recap

Betting Trends
  • Washington is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
  • Washington is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games
  • Washington is 12-1 ATS in its last 13 games on the road
  • Washington is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games on the road
  • Tampa Bay is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
  • Tampa Bay is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
  • Tampa Bay is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
  • Tampa Bay is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games at home