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STANLEY CUP FINAL: Home Ice May Keep Knights’ Hopes Alive vs Capitals

The Vegas Golden Knights are trusting a return to T-Mobile Arena in Game 5 can provide their squad a spark to bounce back in the Stanley Cup final. The Knights were pummeled 6-2 in Game 4 in Washington and now have the unenviable task of trying to dig out of a 3-1 series hole to win the Stanley Cup. Vegas is 7-2 SU in nine home games in the playoffs and the Knights have yet to lose four games in a row in their short history. They opened as -130 favorites to extend this series and take it back to Washington.

SHARK BITES
  • The Golden Knights are 1-4 SU in their last five games with two days off between games.
  • The Capitals are 10-3 SU in their last 13 games in the playoffs on the road.
  • Evgeni Kuznetsov leads the NHL playoffs with 31 points.

Game 4 was an absolute butt-kicking by the Capitals, as they scored six goals for the fourth time in the postseason (all victories) and improved to 12-4 SU in 16 playoff games when scoring first. Considering Washington was outshot and outhit in Game 4, it’s impressive that Vegas could only muster two goals. But where the Capitals have stood out in this series is blocking shots (24-8 in Game 4) as they have the look of a team that is willing to sacrifice for the ultimate goal.

No team since the Detroit Red Wings in 1942 has blown a 3-1 lead in the Cup final so the Capitals should feel confident for the remainder of the series, especially considering how goaltender Braden Holtby has been playing. Holtby held the Knights to two goals on 39 shots in Game 4 and has limited them to only five goals over the last three games. If bettors think the Caps close out the series tonight, they should know that teams with a 3-1 series lead are 5-4 SU in Game 5s since 1996.

Vegas may hang on to the fact that its only two home losses in the postseason were by one goal but the team has been snakebitten on the offensive end after clanging shot after shot off the posts in Game 4. One of the obvious troubles for the Knights is how they’ve performed with the man advantage as they’ve only converted 17.5 percent of their power-play chances in the postseason and in 14 power-play opportunities in the Stanley Cup final, they’ve scored just twice. That’s not going to cut it vs a hungry Capitals squad that has completely shifted its focus to stopping Vegas’s opportunistic attack.

As for netminder Marc-Andre Fleury, it’s been a tough series for the former Conn Smythe Trophy favorite as he has allowed 16 goals through four games and the six goals in Game 4 were the most he has yielded in a game this season. Fleury’s save percentage is an ugly .845 in the Stanley Cup final so unless he comes up big and steals a game for the Knights, the OVER could be a great possibility with the total set at 5.5. The OVER has hit in five of Vegas’s last seven home playoff games with an average combined score of 6.86 goals per game.

Opening Odds & Computer Pick

The visiting Washington Capitals opened as +102 moneyline underdogs in this one at most online sportsbooks tracked at OddsShark, including BetOnline. The total opened at 5.5 for those preferring OVER/UNDER betting; watch for the line updates during the day at Bovada.

A 4.2-1.2 result in favor of the Capitals is the prediction by the OddsShark handicapping pick engine. View the computer score prediction and who will win the pick on the moneyline for all upcoming NHL matchups here.

Washington Capitals vs Vegas Golden Knights Matchup

Team Betting Records & Power Rankings

Supporters of the Washington Capitals have seen them go 64-32-9 so far this season, while the Vegas Golden Knights are at 64-29-8. In totals betting, the Golden Knights are 49-48-4, while the Capitals are 55-45-5. Stay Informed: follow us on Twitter for odds specials, betting line moves and Vegas vs Washington injuries news.

The Capitals-Golden Knights odds would favor the Capitals if the lines were set according to our power ranks. Vegas is rated No. 20 in the current OddsShark poll, while Washington is at No. 7.

Statistical Matchup

Offensively, the game matches up the Vegas Golden Knights' No. 8-ranked offense (3.23 goals per game) against a Washington Capitals defense that ranks No. 10 at 2.83 goals per game allowed. The Golden Knights power play has clicked at a 20.83% rate while the Capitals have a 79.53% rate on the penalty kill.

Recent Outings Betting Recap

Betting Trends
  • Washington is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
  • Washington is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 7 games
  • Washington is 14-2 ATS in its last 16 games on the road
  • Vegas is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
  • Vegas is 13-6 SU in its last 19 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Vegas's last 6 games
  • Vegas is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games at home

Next Betting Matchups

Washington home to Vegas, Sunday, June 10

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