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Stanley Cup Final: Knights’ Dominance at Home Becoming Hard to Overlook

The Stanley Cup final has arrived! The matchup may not be what experts and analysts predicted but Game 1 will get underway tonight between the Vegas Golden Knights and Washington Capitals with the Knights having home-ice advantage. That factor alone could prove to be the difference-maker in this series as Vegas is 6-1 SU in seven games at T-Mobile Arena in the playoffs, outscoring its competition 25-12 in those games. As a result, sportsbooks opened the Knights as -140 favorites to strike first and take the series lead.

  • The Golden Knights are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs Eastern Conference teams.
  • The Capitals are 9-2 SU and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road playoff games.
  • The OVER has hit in four of the Knights’ last five games at home.

The Knights should be plenty rested coming into the final with eight days off since their last game. Scoring first has been the recipe for success with Vegas in the postseason as the Knights are 10-1 SU in 11 playoff games when they score the first goal. And playing in front of their home fans should give them an added boost as the Golden Knights are holding teams to an average of 1.71 goals per game in their barn while scoring 3.57 goals per game in seven playoff games.

The goaltending edge is also in Vegas’s favor as Marc-Andre Fleury has been sensational for the “Golden Misfits” in their run to the final. Flower has posted a 1.68 goals-against average to go with a .947 save percentage in the playoffs and is the odds-on favorite to win the Conn Smythe Trophy as MVP of the postseason. Bettors should also note that Vegas was 2-0 SU and ATS in two games vs Washington this season.

That being said, Washington didn’t get this far by being a pushover. The Caps may have had to go seven games to dispatch the Lightning en route to the final but it was how they took down the Bolts that is hard to ignore. The Capitals won three times in Tampa and have been all-around road warriors in the postseason, going 8-2 SU in away games, outscoring their opponents 36-20 in those contests.  

Alex Ovechkin leads all players with 15 points in road playoff games (eight goals and seven assists) and may have scored the biggest goal of his career to get to this stage with a one-timer in Game 7 vs Tampa Bay that became the deciding goal to clinch the series. Capitals netminder Braden Holtby has also started to get hot and could match Fleury save for save to neutralize the Knights’ quick-strike attack. Holtby finished the Eastern Conference final with a 2.00 goals-against average, a .919 save percentage and shutouts in Games 6 and 7.

Opening Odds & Computer Pick

The Washington Capitals were listed as +126 underdogs on the NHL hockey moneyline earlier at Bet365. The OVER/UNDER total was set at 5.5 before betting started earlier on Monday at Bovada.

OddsShark score prediction models pick a 2.7-2.6 result in favor of the Capitals today. View the computer score prediction and who will win the pick on the moneyline for all upcoming NHL matchups here.

Washington Capitals vs Vegas Golden Knights Matchup

Team Betting Records & Power Rankings

The Vegas Golden Knights currently sport a record of 63-26-8. The Washington Capitals are 61-31-9. Betting totals have seen the Golden Knights post a 47-46-4 OVER/UNDER record this season, while the Capitals have gone 53-43-5 against the number. Stay Informed: follow us on Twitter for odds specials, betting line moves and Vegas vs Washington injuries news.

The OddsShark NHL Power Rankings have the Golden Knights at No. 20 and the Capitals at No. 7 heading into this contest.

Statistical Matchup

Offensively, the game matches up the Vegas Golden Knights' No. 6-ranked offense (3.25 goals per game) against a Washington Capitals defense that ranks No. 10 at 2.83 goals per game allowed. The Golden Knights power play has clicked at a 21% rate while the Capitals have a 79.39% rate on the penalty kill.

Recent Outings Betting Recap

The Capitals were a 4-0 winner in their most recent outing on the road against the Lightning. That made winners of bettors who got Washington at +121 on the moneyline, while the total score (4) was good news for UNDER bettors.

Vegas won its last outing, a 2-1 result against the Jets on May 20. Bettors who backed the Golden Knights at +149 on the moneyline won on the day, and the total score (3) sent UNDER bettors to the payout window.

Betting Trends
  • Washington is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games
  • Washington is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games
  • Washington is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
  • Washington is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games on the road
  • Vegas is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
  • Vegas is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Vegas's last 6 games
  • Vegas is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games at home

Next Betting Matchups

Washington at Vegas, Wednesday, May 30